As of Feb. 13, 77,000 employees accepted the offer, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Before discussing DOGE, let’s go over the US Department of Labor Unemployment Claims for the week ending February 15.
Initial Unemployment Claims
- In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 216,000 to 216,250.
Initial Claims and 4-Week Average
Initial claims were rangebound for all of 2022, between 200,000 and 225,000. Weather related spikes occurred in 2023 and 2024 but have since settled down.
What has increased is the difficulty of finding another job once you lose one.
Continued Unemployment Claims
Continued Claim Numbers
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 8 was 1,869,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
- The previous week’s level was revised down by 5,000 from 1,850,000 to 1,845,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,862,500, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 1,871,500 to 1,870,250.
Continued claims spiked twice, stabilized, then spiked a third smaller time and stabilized again.
4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims Since 1968
The combined takeaway is that companies are still not letting a lot of workers go, but when you do lose your jobs it is increasing harder to find a new one.
Continued claims have held steady since mid-October. However, that is a mirage.
Once a person uses all their benefits, they lose their unemployment benefits.
Expiring Unemployment Benefits
- Most states offer 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
- Many states with a maximum of 26 weeks use a sliding scale based on a worker’s earnings history to determine the maximum number of weeks they qualify
- Arkansas, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Missouri, North Carolina, and Kentucky have a lower number of week.
- Massachusetts allows up to 30 weeks depending on conditions. Montana allows 28 weeks of benefits.
Those are maximum benefits. People who have job-hopped don’t start out with 26 weeks of unemployment.
So at a bare minimum, we need to think of continued claims plus those unemployed 27 weeks or longer.
Unemployment Level 15+ Weeks and 27+ Weeks
The BLS benchmark revision for 2024 plunged the 15+ unemployment numbers from 2.89 million to 2.60 million.
Notably, this sudden decrease reset my 15+ weeks recession indicator.
Continued Claims and 27+ Weeks Unemployed Detail
Benchmark revisions also impacted 27+weeks unemployment numbers.
But factoring in expired benefits, the proper reading for continued claims is 3,315,000 not the reported 1,869,000. This assumes the BLS numbers make any sense.
The Department of Labor numbers do make sense. People like money so they file claims, except perhaps illegal immigrants.
No DOGE Impact
- Initial claims for UI benefits filed by former Federal civilian employees totaled 613 in the week ending February 8, an increase of 14 from the prior week.
- There were 7,110 continued weeks claimed filed by former Federal civilian employees the week ending February 1, a decrease of 335 from the previous week.
Congrats!
“So, congrats, I suppose, to the 77,000 people who get an eight-month vacation,” Leavitt told NewsNation.
Those who accepted the offer are still getting paid so there should be no unemployment claims related to the 77,000 layoffs for 8 months.
Since they are still technically working, if they take another job, the BLS will see this as a new job. However, these persons will likely take a job from someone else who would have gotten one.
So expect to see an increase in the number of people working multiple jobs (assuming the BLS surveys properly). Since my assumption may easily be wrong, the most likely way is a double-counting of jobs.
This should not impact employment levels (other than take a job from someone who otherwise may have gotten one), but we are dealing with the BLS.
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