Avian influenza or bird flu is devastating wildlife around the world.
It is estimated that more than 500 bird species have been affected, and millions of birds have died.
, and influenza experts say its arrival on our shores is inevitable.
Honorary professor Robyn Alders, from the Australian National University’s Development Policy Centre, said it was possible .
“The concern is that it could be introduced via migrating wild birds or potentially via contaminated people or illegal movement of contaminated animals, animal products or equipment,” she told SBS News.
H5N1,, first emerged in 1996. Since 2020, the number of outbreaks in birds has grown exponentially, alongside an increase in the number of infected mammals.
Experts predict local extinctions and ‘grave endangerment’
Dr Carol Booth, the principal policy analyst at the Invasive Species Council, said H5N1 would be devastating to Australian animals.
“When Avian influenza arrives, it’s likely to be the biggest and most complex wildlife emergency ever faced in Australia,” she told SBS News.
“We could see vast numbers of deaths, multiple outbreaks at once, dozens and potentially hundreds of species affected, local extinctions and grave endangerment of species that are already on the edge, that are already highly threatened.”
Booth said that some species are more at risk than others.
“Sea birds, they’re known to be at particular risk because the virus spreads between them and there have been catastrophic rates of death in those species overseas,” she said.
‘Catastrophic’ rates of death overseas
One way to estimate how H5N1 will impact Australian wildlife is to analyse how the strain is affecting animals overseas.
One example is the effect of the strain in South America from when it arrived in 2022, which Booth described as devastating.
“If you look at what happened in South America, it gives us some insight into what we could face in six months,” she said,
“Bird flu swept from north to south, it killed an estimated 650,000 birds, more than 30,000 sea lions, 40 per cent of Peru’s pelican population. Almost all the elephant seal pups that were born in Argentina. Dolphins and otters were affected. It’s just complete tragedy.”
In the United Kingdom, H5N1 has wiped out about 30 per cent of the country’s breeding population of roseate terns, great skua and gannets.
In Antarctica, mass mortality events have been observed in penguins and skuas since bird flu arrived there in early 2024.
There have even been deaths in animals native to Australia but located overseas in zoos.
Professor Kirsty Short, a pathologist at the University of Queensland, has researched which Australian animals are at risk of the strain.
Black swans, emus
“We have done work on the Australian black swan, and we can see that species is particularly vulnerable — more so than, say, a white swan — partly due to differences in its immune system that have evolved over time,” Short told SBS News.
“When it comes to the black swan, we know that there was an outbreak of avian influenza in a zoo in Jerusalem and all the black swans died, but the white swans survived. So that reinforces what we know.”
Another native animal at risk is the emu, which also has the potential to transfer both avian and mammalian influenza.
“There was an outbreak of avian influenza in Russia, and we saw the virus mutate,” she said.
“Some species like emu actually have a different selective pressure that they exert on this virus compared to species like chickens for example.
“And this selective pressure actually drives the virus towards having more mutations that make it more adept at infecting mammalian species.
“So, there is the concern about the direct impact on our wildlife, but also this indirect impact and what that will mean for the evolution of the virus.”
The Invasive Species Council also flagged sea lions and Tasmanian devils as particularly vulnerable.
How is Australia preparing?
Since 2020, there have been outbreaks in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, South America and Antarctica — Australia remains the only continent free of high pathogenicity avian influenza.
Booth explained how the Australian government is preparing for H5N1.
“Because Australia’s the last continent free of this deadly virus, we have had the opportunity to prepare and preparation means conducting surveillance and preparing response plans, identifying species that are at particular risk and working out what you do,” she said.
“Australia has, after a slow start, put a lot of work into preparation and made much progress in recent months.
“And that was particularly since the federal government committed almost $100 million in extra funding some of that specifically for wildlife preparedness.”
Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry will lead “a rapid and coordinated national response” if Australia experiences an outbreak of H5 bird flu, according to the department’s website.
