In yet another display of momentum for Trump, the New York Times has Trump tied nationally.
Deadlocked 48-48
The New York Times reports Harris and Trump Deadlocked to the End, Final Times/Siena National Poll Finds That’s a free link.
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 percent to 48 percent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Ms. Harris struggles for an edge over Mr. Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.
The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Ms. Harris’s position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll, taken in early October. At the time, she had a slight lead over Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent.
There are glimmers of hope in this final national poll for both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris. For Mr. Trump it is immigration: 15 percent of respondents named immigration as their top issue, up from 12 percent.
The poll included some encouraging signs for Ms. Harris as well. She has narrowed the gap with Mr. Trump on the economy, which remains the top issue for voters. Mr. Trump had a 13-point edge over Ms. Harris on which candidate could better manage the economy in the poll last month. That has shrunk to 6 percentage points.
How the Times Siena Poll Compares
That looks like a tossup, or perhaps even a small lead for Harris.
I disagree. It’s no worse than a small lead for Trump. Three-fourths of the polls have been breaking for Trump in the past few weeks, generally on the same issues, the economy and immigration.
Nate Silver discussed this today.
The Border May Tip the Election to Trump
Nate Silver says The Border May Tip the Election to Trump. Without the word “probably” I believe that’s an obvious “duh”, but let’s review his comments.
Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced sharp cuts to his country’s legal immigration quotas. The number of permanent residents admitted into Canada will be slashed by more than 20 percent, while temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half.
I know you probably weren’t expecting a newsletter about Canada. But when he saw the news about Trudeau yesterday, a friend texted me something along the lines of “This is why Kamala is going to lose”. And I think he makes a pretty good argument.
This [NYT] poll is hardly alone in showing Harris’s national lead slipping. Quite a few recent national polls show a tie or Trump slightly ahead, in fact. Here’s our table of national polls from yesterday’s model run, which doesn’t yet include the NYT data. There’s quite a bit of red if you scroll through the first two tabs, the polls that get the most weight in our average.
Since NYT/Siena polls are among our highest-rated surveys, it becomes tough to make the case that Harris’s problems are concentrated only in low-quality polls or Republican-affiliated polls that are “flooding the zone”. In fact, when we ran the numbers last week, Trump’s win probability actually slightly improved when we restricted the model to using only high-quality, nonpartisan surveys.
Finally, the usual reminder that we’re going to be getting a lot of data over the last 11 days, and any one data point shouldn’t change your views about the race that much.
Silver has repeated that last paragraph, or something close, nearly every day for weeks.
Meanwhile Trump has steadily improved over that time.
Since October 1, Silver’s National Average for Trump has gone from 46.0 percent to 47.2 percent.
Since October 1, Silver’s National Average for Harris has gone from 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent.
The spread has gone from 3.4 percentage points in favor of Harris to 1.3 percentage points in favor of Harris. And that is before the WSJ poll that has Trump +3 and the NYT poll at +0!
I’ll take a crack that Silver will soon be at or below +1.0 for Harris, a number that Silver has assigned (from memory) a 70 percent chance of Trump winning. I cannot find his latest electoral college bias, but I am sure that shrunk.
Back to the Border
The Times poll’s large sample sizes and high quality help us dig a little deeper into the numbers — not just who’s winning, but why. For instance, it asked voters “What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November for president?”.
This was an open-ended question; respondents volunteered their answers rather than being read options from a prefabricated list. And here’s how they responded. I’ve done a little algebra on the backend here to calculate the net number of votes gained or lost by Harris based on issue groups.
This data tells a really clear story. Immigration and the economy are huge liabilities for Harris. In fact, they’re basically her only liabilities. They offset strong issues for her on abortion, democracy, and Trump’s personal attributes. Interestingly, voters who couldn’t name a most important issue also leaned strongly toward Harris — but that may be a sign that she’s offering voters more vibes than substance. Health care, long a winning issue for Democrats, barely shows up on the radar, for instance. That seems like a huge oversight for Harris given that Trump came within the margin of John McCain’s “maverick” vote on repealing Obamacare.
All year long readers will recall I implored Trump to stick with two issues, the economy and immigration.
Instead he wasted a debate talking about campaign rally size and he gave a totally stupid answer to a debate question on abortion.
This put Trump into a substantial hole that he has clearly dug himself out of.
Alternatively, and arguably more likely, the Harris media blitz backfired on her when she repeatedly refused to answer even the softest of softball media pitches, and sounded like a kackling idiot in the process.
It’s Not 50-50
The election is not a tossup. It’s breaking the way I suggested all the way back in February: People struggling with rent (young voters and blacks) will decide the election.
Not 50-50 doesn’t mean 80-20. I don’t know precisely what it means but yesterday I suggested 55-45 Trump,
Trump is clearly ahead. My one possible caveat is Trump may have needed this late surge just to get back to even. But if that was the case, then Harris was way ahead a few weeks ago.
If you disagree, then tell me whose shoes you would rather be in right now.
The poll aggregators have been so burnt by making calls, they are now willing to hide behind “It’s a tossup” statements.
I discussed this in Nate Silver’s Gut Says Trump Will Win, Just Don’t Bet On It
Nate Silver, Nate Cohn (NYT), and Sean Trende (Real Clear Politics) all say the same thing: It’s close.
Immigration Is Really a Symptom
Immigration has been a losing issue for the party in power in France, Germany, the UK, Hungary, Austria, the Netherlands, Poland, and now Canada.
Silver states the seemingly obvious: It may cost Harris the election.
But in reality, pain over immigration is a symptom of pain over the economy.
What the Election is Really About
Sure crime is up, but if people were happy about their jobs, able to afford houses, and not upset about food prices and the cost of insurance, etc., then immigration would have much less importance.
Well-off Whites don’t understand the immigration issue because they reside in ivory towers, in safe neighborhoods, and in academic wonderlands, not impacted in any way by immigration, happy their 401Ks are soaring.
The average person sees immigrants getting free benefits and shelter when they are struggling with shelter, food, insurance, and massive credit card debt.
Continued Unemployment Claims Are the Highest Since November 13, 2021
Yesterday, I noted Continued Unemployment Claims Are the Highest Since November 13, 2021
Continued Plus Long-Term Unemployment Claims Suggest Recession Right Now.
And for all the talk about the economy is humming, please note Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 3 Declining
The Fed Beige book shows a mostly steady economy in 6 of 12 regional reports. “Steady” is in context of the the worst Beige Book in years.
On October 22, I commented 20 Percent of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck to Paycheck
Bank of America has an interesting report on who’s living paycheck to paycheck (PTP). It’s not just the poor. Blame the Fed.
On October 21, I commented October 21: In California, Harris Is Down 21 Percentage Points With Latinos vs 2020
And while the The Immigrant Crime Spree is Real, Not Imaginary, Thank Harris and Biden that’s not really what the backlash against immigration is really about.
If people were not struggling with shelter, food, insurance, etc., they would not be so upset with immigration.
The backlash against immigration is really a backlash against inflation and the economy. That is what’s behind the shift towards Trump.
And it’s why this election is not the tossup everyone says it is.