As all the world knows by now, the IDF has eliminated Hamas terrorist leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. It hardly came as a surprise. He had been a dead man walking for many years.
Sinwar only took over as leader of Hamas a matter of weeks ago after the assassination of then leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July this year. No-one has claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death but it is widely assumed the Israelis did it. They have not commented.
Sinwar was no stranger to conflict with Israel. Born in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the Gaza Strip, he was first arrested by the Israelis in 1982 for “subversive activities”. In latter years he was Hamas’ leader in Gaza and number one target for the IDF, which believed he was mainly responsible for organising and directing the attacks of 7 October last year which led to the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of 250 more.
Since the IDF’s subsequent assault into Gaza he had been skulking in the tunnels protected by a human shield of hostages and ordinary Palestinian civilians. And now he, like so many others he condemned to their fates, is gone.
The death of Sinwar is a significant success for Israel. He had always favoured armed conflict over diplomatic solutions. His demise is unlikely to bring an immediate end to the war in Gaza but is a definite step on the way to bringing it to a conclusion, temporary or otherwise.
What will Hamas do now? Well, its political leadership is outside Gaza in Qatar and other countries but must be feeling distinctly uncomfortable.
They too must be in the firing line, and Mossad has an uncanny ability to seek out and eradicate its enemies.
Hamas will appoint another leader to replace Sinwar, just as they have in the past replaced other leaders within the organisation who have met the same fate. But any declared successor will be just as vulnerable and is likely to have a lifespan akin to that of a mayfly.
Apparently, a nameless Hamas official has told the BBC that the terrorist organisation is likely to keep the identity of a new leader secret for security reasons. It did so back in 2003 after the assassination by Israel of its then-leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and then of his successor Dr Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi. So good luck with that one. Israel’s intelligence network is so efficient that the identity of any new leader won’t stay secret for long.
Hamas has indicated that it hopes to have elected a new leader by March of next year but until then the organisation will be run by a five-member committee. This will comprise the following individuals; Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Meshaal, Zahir Jabarin, head of the Shura Council Muhammed Darwish, and one other whose identity has not been revealed.
All of them now have targets on their backs and are unlikely to live long enough to draw their pensions.
Sinwar’s death will also have wider ramifications in the region. Iran, sponsor of the so-called Axis of Resistance, has witnessed the decapitation of the leadership of two of its main proxies in its struggle with Israel, Hezbollah and now Hamas. It will be hoping that its sworn enemy does not turn its attention to the leadership in Tehran.
Paradoxically, Iran will now hope that the USA, the “Great Satan” in their eyes, will be able to persuade Israel to exercise some constraint as it prepares to respond to the Iranian missile assault of 1 October. Above all else it will hope that Israel does not take out its own leaders and leadership structures as it has done with its proxies.
The tide may be turning in the Middle East. Iran might well wish to avoid Israel’s anger lest it is comprehensively crushed. The Israelis may have other ideas.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk