We now have an answer that I long suspected. Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline to the EU. Germany’s response is not severe enough.
Nord Stream Blowback
Politico reports Germany to Halt New Ukraine Military Aid
The German government will stop new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition’s plan to reduce spending, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Saturday.
The moratorium on new assistance is already in effect and will affect new requests for funding, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cited non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people familiar with the matter.
In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany’s federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.
Wimpy Response
This is a damn wimpy response but the political ramifications will be more severe.
Poland aided Ukraine in this mess by not capturing the pipeline suspects.
And Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, chastised Germany as if this is somehow Germany’s fault.
Eurointelligence comments on Tusk Diplomacy.
Tusk Diplomacy – Germany Edition
We recall the role Donald Tusk played during the Brexit standoff in the UK, when, as president of the European Council, he personally campaigned during the 2019 election for anti-Brexit parties. We thought at the time that this act was massively counter-productive, and it may have played a role in the UK’s big pro-Brexit swing later that year.
This weekend we were reminded of Tusk’s diplomatic skills when he posted a message on social media that read as follows:
“To all the initiators and patrons of Nord Stream 1 and 2. The only thing you should do today about it is apologise and keep quiet.”
Considering that his country has not acted on the European arrest warrant by the German public prosecutor and allowed the prime suspect to leave the country, this is not something we would have advised him to write.
It is one thing to oppose Nord Stream 1 and 2. It is another to support its violent destruction. We recall Jens Stoltenberg, the former Nato general secretary, as saying that an attack on the Norwegian pipeline system would constitute a Nato Art. 5 trigger. Germany is mercifully not treating the pipeline explosions as an act of war. But it constitute an act of sabotage, that raise important political questions about Germany’s future support for Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal story last week was the first cohesive, yet still incomplete, account of what has happened. It is already starting to play into German politics. Sahra Wagenknecht has elevated German policy on Ukraine to her main campaign theme in the three eastern German elections next month. She has also shifted her previous stance on the AfD. She no longer rules out the possibility of supporting AfD legislation, as she put it, should this situation arise in one of three state parliaments. At the same time, she erected a political firewall against all parties that support US missiles on German soil. She now accuses Ukraine of terrorism.
If she gets the numbers that polls are currently suggesting, we would expect her message to have a profound effect on German politics. The polls are difficult to read. Her party is new. We should prepare for results that lie well outside the error margins of opinion polling. But she is on course to displace the Left Party as the main political force to the left of the SPD. As Germany approaches a federal election next year, we would expect Ukraine to become a major campaign theme.
Who Is Sahra Wagenknecht?
Wikipedia comments the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance [BSW] Reason and Justice is a left-wing nationalist, populist, Eurosceptic and socially conservative German political party founded on 8 January 2024.
Wagenknecht had ruled out any cooperation with AfD, Alternative for Germany a far-right and right-wing populist political party in Germany. The AfD is Eurosceptic, and opposes immigration to Germany – especially of Muslims.
Now the German extreme Left and extreme Right have a mutual cause.
BSW and AfD Makes Strides in EU Election
Reuters reports Germany’s New Leftist Party and AfD Makes Strides in EU Election
A party founded just five months ago by an icon of Germany’s hard left has gone from a standing start to seemingly automatic coalition partner in three eastern regions where elections are due later this year.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), whose eponymous leader quit the ailing Left party last year, promised voters less bureaucracy, lower taxes and better pensions, and called for an end to arms for Ukraine.
That eclectic pitch won it 6% of the vote in Sunday’s European Parliament elections, while in some eastern states, strongholds of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), the BSW took a comfortable third place on as much as 15%.
On August 15, The Economist (paywalled) commented Anti-war parties are set to clean up in eastern German elections.
A ‘Left Conservative’ Platform?
The above description seems more than a bit weird but that is how Courthouse News describes the party in in August 16 take, Germany’s New Populist Party Hopes to Build on EU Election Success.
German politician Sahra Wagenknecht’s breakaway BSW party has proved tricky for pundits to define and controversial in equal measure. Neither of which has stopped it from seeing early success in recent European Parliament elections. The party could prove influential in Germany’s increasingly-fractured political landscape.
Germans turned out in the highest numbers in decades in this month’s European Parliament election. The results likely will bring only a minor shakeup of seats in Brussels, but the vote has been widely framed as a stand-in for midterm national elections.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, named after the politician who founded the party following a protracted and dramatic exodus from the Left Party, racked up 6.2% of the vote just months after entering German politics.
“I doubt many of us expected it,” Sevim Dagdelen, one of ten members of the alliance serving in the Bundestag and the party’s parliamentary foreign policy spokesperson, told Courthouse News in a written interview.
A ‘Left Conservative’ Platform
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance’s platform has proven tricky to categorize and has received an array of often-conflicting labels in the press. The party’s positions are a populist-tinged grab bag of left-leaning social spending, middle class-focused liberal economics, conservative cultural positions and anti-NATO foreign policy.
“Our politics revolve around the concerns of the average citizen and not elite debates from small circles that are far-removed from society,” said Dagdelen, who has served in the Bundestag since 2005, initially as a member of The Left Party before leaving for the alliance, known in Germany as BSW.
Sound Familiar?
“(People) are worried about escalation of the war in Europe, unchecked immigration, rising criminality and constraints on the freedom of opinion,” said Sevim Dagdelen.
That is what Donald Tusk stepped into.
However, we can thank Tusk’s big mouth for helping the UK vote for Brexit. Now, Tusk is going to cost the German center some votes.
The Real Story of Nord Stream
The Wall Street Journal comments A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage
That is a free link to a very long and detailed report. Here are a few snips.
The Journal spoke to four senior Ukrainian defense and security officials who either participated in or had direct knowledge of the plot. All of them said the pipelines were a legitimate target in Ukraine’s war of defense against Russia.
Portions of their account were corroborated by a nearly two-year German police investigation into the attack, which has obtained evidence including email, mobile and satellite phones communications, as well as fingerprints and DNA samples from the alleged sabotage team. The Germany inquiry hasn’t directly linked President Zelensky to the clandestine operation.
In June, Germany’s federal prosecutor quietly issued the first arrest warrant in the case for a Ukrainian professional diving instructor for his alleged involvement in the sabotage. The German investigation is now focusing on Zaluzhniy and his aides, people familiar with the probe say, although they have no evidence that could be presented in court.
The findings could [Not Could, Did] upend relations between Kyiv and Berlin, which has provided much of the financing and military equipment to Ukraine, second only to the U.S.
“An attack of this scale is a sufficient reason to trigger the collective defense clause of NATO, but our critical infrastructure was blown up by a country that we support with massive weapons shipments and billions in cash,” said a senior German official familiar with the probe.
US Tried to Stop the Attack
Zelensky approved the plan, according to the four people familiar with the plot. All arrangements were made verbally, leaving no paper trail.
But the next month, the Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD learned of the plot and warned the CIA, according to several people familiar with the Dutch report. U.S. officials then promptly informed Germany, according to U.S. and German officials.
The CIA warned Zelensky’s office to stop the operation, U.S. officials said. The Ukrainian president then ordered Zaluzhniy to halt it, according to Ukrainian officers and officials familiar with the conversation as well as Western intelligence officials. But the general ignored the order, and his team modified the original plan, these people said.
My Position All Along
My position from the beginning was Ukraine did it. The motive fit. I was blasted by many for that position.
I did not dismiss the US could have done it, but it made little sense that the US did.
If the harm was somehow to Venezuela not Germany, it would have made a US operation more likely.
Many cited this ridiculous article by Martin Armstrong US Blows up NordStream Pipeline in Act of War
Is there an apology or retraction by Armstrong yet?
Forbes Blames Russia
Whose Best Interest is Served?
Whose best interest is it to get a NATO response? Russia, Poland, Ukraine, US?
Only 12.8 percent got it right.
Biden vows to ‘end’ Nord Stream 2 pipeline if Russia invades Ukraine
Motive
Ukraine had the best motive.
The US had the technical capability and a lesser motive but would the US damage Germany and the EU?
My answer was no.
Yet when I proposed Ukraine did it , see German Prosecutor Hints Ukraine Blew Up the Nordstream Pipeline With C4 Explosives I received these comments
Reader Comments
- MarkraD: I think it was Russia, an oligarch at least, it would make sense that they’d leave behind cookie crumbs to make it look like Ukrainians, the E.U. or U.S. An Oligarch could easily place massive positions in natural gas futures ahead of it, fund an experienced mercenary to do it, then make billions off the spike.
- Michiganmoon: It seems like the US did it and is trying to point fingers.
- Tedwardspharmd: And….this whole media coverage is the oldest play in the playbook. Ukraine couldn’t blow up a straw out of a 7-11 big gulp
- Tedwardspharmd: This is laughable! Ukraine blows up pipeline! We blew that pipeline sky high. We are the only ones with the means and certainly the motive. Hell, Biden said he was going to blow it up before we blew it up.
- Charlie: Former CIA Director John Brennan on Wednesday told CNN he believes the leaks were a result of sabotage, most likely by Russia. Gerhard Schindler, the former head of Germany’s federal intelligence agency, told a German paper this week that Russia is the most likely the perpetrator of the leaks.” The same people that now put the blame on Ukraine.
- TheTenYear: Joe Biden: “There will no longer be a Nord Stream 2”. Also Joe Biden: “We will bring an end to it” A grinning Joe Biden: “I promise you we will be able to do it (bring an end to the pipeline)”.
- JoJo: Your clickbait headline is discordant.
- Ron Cataldi: Mish does this nudge nudge wink wink thing all the time, but always leaves himself wiggle room to say he never made the claim. “I’m just asking questions” etc. It’s pretty transparent.
- Ron Cataldi: Russia relies on useful fools in the US media (and right wing) to buy their disinfo. Don’t be one, Mish.
- Dave: This made me laugh. Crazy old Biden spilled the beans and now the US is pretending to be puzzled about who could have done this.
- LawrenceBird: Don’t drink the cool-aid Mish. Seriously this fable is even worse than Hersh’s. Take a look at far apart the explosions are for just one thing.
- LM2022: Nato are unified against an external threat and are fully supporting Ukraine. Makes no sense for the US or the Ukrainians to do this.
- Waterwiz: Brandon already admitted the US did the deed….
- Nonplused: So if Ukraine did it, they did it with NATO assistance or at least a blind eye.
- PimaC: I’ll go with Sy Hersch’s explanation: The US blew it up. It was obvious then, and it’s more obvious now since he posted his article about HOW the US did it. You can read the article on his substack.
Apologies Accepted
I accept 15 apologies.
And I award one Blue Ribbon for clear thinking.
Texas Time: History has shown that when war ends and peace breaks out former enemies become fast friends when there is a buck to be made. Germany wreaked havoc in Europe with 2 World Wars and within a generation they were best of friends and happily doing business with all their former foes that they did unspeakable things to. Same for the US and Vietnam or the US and Japan or Korea and Japan and countless other examples.
When the Ukrainian conflict ends and the embargo is lifted some country will import Russian gas the second it’s cheaper than coal or US gas etc. That will then make their economy more efficient than their neighbors and the rush to do business with Russia will be on. It’s just good common sense.
Ironies Abound
- People who don’t believe a thing Biden says, suddenly believe an idle threat by Biden regarding shutting down the pipeline.
- People blame the CIA but the CIA got wind of the operation and tried to end it. What a hoot!
Victory for Occam’s Razor
The least convoluted explanation is the most likely.
In this case, the least convoluted theory was Ukraine had the biggest motive and best access without awakening suspicion.
War Will End with Negotiated Settlement
This war will end the way I suggested the moment Russia failed to take Kyiv, a negotiated settlement.
It was US meddling that led to this disaster with Senator John McCain fomenting the mess by backing Ukraine entry into NATO.
That does not excuse Putin’s reaction but it explains it. Then on the verge of a settlement UK prime minister Boris Johnson blew up the deal.
And here we are. Tens of thousands of lives lost, support for the war on the wane in the US and EU coupled with infighting in both the US and EU.
With Germany cutting off more funding and everyone tiring of the war, how can a negotiated settlement not be the end result?
Russia will take over portions of Ukraine, the same deal that was on the table long ago.
The idea that such an appeasement increases the odds of a Russia attack on Poland is absurd.
Russia could not even get a total victory against a very weak Ukraine and is militarily and demographically weakened considerably.
Let the war end. The outcome is written in stone.
How many more people have to die to reach that outcome is the key uncertainty.
Addendum: Blasting the Hersh BS Sky High
Please consider All at sea: Seymour Hersh and his Nord Stream sabotage story
“Any serious student of the event would know that you cannot anchor a sailboat in waters that are 260 feet deep.”
Though factually correct, this is a silly thing to say: the boat wouldn’t need to anchor,
Hersh makes a factually correct statement but one that is 100% meaningless.
Medium writer Brian Whitaker goes over most of the BS about a tiny little 49-foot boat couldn’t do this or that.
Hersh: ““You cannot just walk off the street with a fake passport and lease a boat.”
More BS.
Whitaker blasts that out of the water too.
The captain and the divers would need to show proof of their competence, but it’s unclear why the expert thinks this would be a problem. If you want to blow up pipelines it’s best to have competent people to do it. They wouldn’t want to have their real names on the certificates, but for people who know how to get false passports getting the extra documentation shouldn’t be too difficult.
Actually, it’s very clear why Hersh would do this. He sells conspiracy theories.
This reminds me of all the BS about Lee Harvey Oswald could not walk to the location in the allotted time or could not have fired the shots in the allotted time. Then many people did both.
Decompression BS
A reader just asked “Where was the decompression chamber?”
The short answer is none was needed despite allegations by many.
Brian Whitaker discussed that in a follow-up article Nord Stream sabotage: a look at the evidence so far
There have been repeated claims that it would not be feasible to carry out 80-metre dives from such a small boat, since the Andromeda had no space for a decompression chamber. However, a mention of helium in the intelligence report about the Ukrainian plan points to an alternative solution. By breathing a mixture of oxygen and helium and pausing at intervals while returning to the surface, the need for a decompression chamber could be avoided. A Dutch military website describes the process when used by navy divers.
In an interview with the Ostsee-Zeitung, Achim Schloeffel, an “extreme diver” and trainer, suggested the difficulties have been exaggerated. The pipeline would be easy to locate from sea charts or with an echo sounder costing around $3,000. The location could be marked by dropping a 15kg weight attached to a line with a marker buoy on the other end and divers would follow the line down to the exact spot. Explosives could be guided down the line in the same way. The boat would continue sailing and return to the marker buoy to pick up the divers when they surfaced
“Anyone who has completed level two in our diving school would be able to do this,” Schloeffel told the paper. “Especially for those who regularly go wreck diving, a dive to the pipeline would not be a problem for them.
This will not convince anyone. People who believe BS will stick to believing BS.