War fears explode as Israel braces for ‘inevitable’ Iran attack as hardliners demand blood

Iran is likely to be pondering two options as it mulls retaliation against Israel following the assassination of two high-profile military commanders, a UK-based expert has said.

Meanwhile, frantic negotiations are continuing to wrap up a Gaza ceasefire which could be key to dissuading Tehran from sanctioning an attack Dr Burcu Ocelik told Express.co.uk that could have “severe” worldwide implications.

Tensions have been threatening to boil over ever since airstrikes last month which killed Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, in Tehran. Israel has acknowledged responsibility for the former but not the latter.

Speaking to UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer last week, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian insisted his country had a “right” to hit back, describing such a move as a “solution for stopping crimes and aggression”. Religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made similar remarks.

Dr Ocelik, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “The precise details of Iran’s military retaliation remain unclear, with a flurry of international efforts focused on securing a ceasefire and hostage release deal that can prevent escalation that could tip the region into a wider war and hit Lebanon especially hard.

“The consequences would be severe, with global implications for supply chains, food and energy security, and potential refugee flows.”

Outlining what an Iranian response would look like, Dr Ocelik outlined two broad scenarios.

She explained: “One is an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) led assault, synchronised with mainly Hezbollah from southern Lebanon but with the coordinated backing of other Iran-sponsored armed non-state groups in Iraq, Syria and Yemen in a series of strikes to overwhelm Israel’s air defence capabilities and disrupt military, potentially civilian, infrastructure.”

Dr Ocelik continued: “Another scenario is a more limited attack against more high-value Israeli targets.

“Iran’s hardliners seek to retaliate – which in some form seems inevitable – but Tehran is cautious to walk back from the brink of a catastrophe for which it will pay a heavy price, crippling its economy even further.

“The fact that Tehran has not yet retaliated, despite almost daily threats and an aggressive psychological warfare campaign against Israel, can be explained by the immense pressure that Iran is under by regional and international actors to avoid escalation beyond a limited or tactical response, but also the indecision domestically within the regime on the next steps.”

Speaking today, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the time was now to conclude a Gaza cease-fire agreement that would return hostages held by Hamas and bring relief to Palestinian suffering after 10 months of fighting in Gaza.

Blinken’s ninth urgent mission to the Middle East since the conflict began came days after mediators, including the United States, expressed renewed optimism a deal was near. However, Iran-aligned Hamas has expressed deep dissatisfaction with the latest proposal and Israel has said there were areas it was unwilling to compromise.

Speaking as he opened talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv, Mr Blinken said: “This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last, opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a cease-fire and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security.”

In a thinly veiled reference to Iran, he added: “It’s also time to make sure that no one takes any steps that could derail this process.

“And so we’re working to make sure that there is no escalation, that there are no provocations, that there are no actions that in any way move us away from getting this deal over the line, or for that matter, escalating the conflict to other places and to greater intensity.”

Mr Herzog thanked Mr Blinken for the Biden administration’s support for Israel and lamented a spate of recent attacks against Israelis in the past 24 hours.

He said: “This is the way we are living these days. We are surrounded by terrorism from all four corners of the earth and we are fighting back as a resilient and strong nation.”

Mediators will meet again this week in Cairo to try to cement a cease-fire. Blinken will travel to Egypt on Tuesday after he wraps up his Israel stop in meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant later Monday.

The war began on October 7 when Hamas-led militants broke into Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250. Of those, some 110 are still believed to be in Gaza, though Israeli authorities say around a third are dead. More than 100 hostages were released in November during a weeklong cease-fire.

Israel‘s counterattack in Gaza has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and devastated much of the territory.

Yesterday, Hamas said in a statement that Netanyahu has continued to set obstacles to a deal by demanding new conditions, accusing him of wanting to prolong the war. It said the mediators’ latest offer was a capitulation to Israel.

It insisted: “The new proposal responds to Netanyahu’s conditions.”