Unusual temperatures recorded since March last year
The record temperatures have been described as an “anomaly” by British climatologist Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
Daily sea surface temperatures have been breaking records since mid-March last year. Source: SBS News
Land surface temperatures have also shot up. 2023 was the , according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, and there are warnings that 2024 could be even worse.
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that aims to keep global warming well under 2C and preferably at 1.5C.
Since then, temperatures have remained at record levels.
‘Extraordinary’ record-breaking streak
The Climate Reanalyzer uses data from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to track sea surface temperatures.
Sea surface temperatures have broken daily records since March 2023. Source: Getty
Separate analysis from Europe’s Copernicus service shows a handful of days in May did not break records, but overall, both organisations have noted record temperature levels since March last year.
“Breaking records continuously over a 12-month or more period is extraordinary.”
What we are seeing is extraordinary, and concerning.
Professor Mark Howden, Australian National University
Land temperatures also set records
“We are consequently seeing extraordinary temperatures over the land as well, impacting on human health and wellbeing, agricultural production, water availability, economic productivity and the environment to name just a few of the affected domains,” he said.
We are consequently seeing extraordinary temperatures over the land as well, impacting on human health and well-being, agricultural production, water availability…
Professor Mark Howden, Australian National University
Since then, temperatures have continued to set records, with the average rising to 1.63C for the 12 months to May this year.
Land temperatures have also set records in the past 12 months. Source: AAP / Victoria Jones/PA/Alamy
This month, a report from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) suggested there was an 80 per cent chance temperatures would rise above the 1.5C threshold across one calendar year at some point over the next five years.
“WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” WMO deputy chief Ko Barrett told reporters in Geneva.
World could be in ‘uncharted’ territory by August
“If the anomaly does not stabilise by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory.”
If the anomaly does not stabilise by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory.
Gavin Schmidt, US climatologist
It could also mean scientists’ predictions were less reliable than expected, which would add uncertainty to predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.
‘Natural variability’ could help explain record-breaking temperatures
“I wouldn’t panic about it right now,” Bill Hare, director of global think tank Climate Analytics, told SBS News.
“The thing that people need to understand is the long-term trend is alarming — and that’s not going to slow down until we reduce emissions.”
Can we still keep global warming to 1.5C?
“People have a right to be concerned that we could reach that limit if we don’t act,” he said.
The change in temperature for the hottest days and coldest nights, comparing the difference between 1.5C and 2C of global warming. Source: SBS News
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts the world could reach 1.5C of warming as early as 2030 if there is no change to human activities.
“When people say the 1.5C limit is lost, what they’re really saying is they don’t believe government will take enough action to reduce emissions.”
2030 target is important for limiting global warming
It would still keep the net zero by 2050 target, but Dutton said the Coalition won’t reveal its 2030 target until after the next election, expected to be held by September next year.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton says the Coalition won’t back Australia’s 2030 carbon emissions reduction target if elected. Source: AAP / Bianca De Marchi
Hare said if the world did not reduce emissions by more than 40 per cent in the next six years, we would face a longer period of hotter weather.
Even with action now, the IPCC predicts the rate of warming would only slow and stop around the year 2050.
It’s in Australia’s best interests to act
An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5C found stress on freshwater supplies in Australia could be halved if warming was kept to 1.5C, rather than 2C.
“[At] 2C of warming, there’s virtually no chance of anything being left at all.”