Rising interest rates and economic instability are pushing foreign investors away from the German real estate market.
A recent report from BNP Paribas Real Estate reveals that only 35 percent of commercial property purchases in the first quarter of this year were made by international buyers. This is the lowest figure since 2013, down from 37 percent in 2023.
The drop in investment is due to several factors, including high inflation and recession fears.
Although Germany’s economy showed a slight improvement with a 0.2 percent GDP growth in the first quarter, experts caution that long-standing structural issues will continue to hinder economic performance.
Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3 percent in both the last quarter and the entirety of 2023, making it the worst-performing major economy globally last year.
The energy crisis in Europe, particularly Germany’s reliance on Russian fuel, has significantly impacted its industrial sector. However, other persistent challenges such as an ageing population, insufficient public investment, excessive bureaucracy, and low productivity are also major contributors to the downturn.
Before the pandemic, Germany was attractive to investors due to low unemployment, economic stability, and favourable interest rates. “Starting around 2005, Germany experienced a ‘labour market miracle’,” noted the Centre for Economic and Policy Research. Employment rose from 39.3 million in 2005 to 45.3 million in 2019.
Despite weathering the 2008 financial crisis relatively well, Germany has been criticised for not fully embracing technological advancements and shifting towards low-productivity sectors, exacerbating its current economic woes.
The decentralised nature of Germany’s property market also plays a role in deterring investment. Unlike more centralised economies like France and the UK, Germany’s economic strength is distributed among cities such as Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, Frankfurt, and Cologne, rather than being concentrated in a single hub.
With ongoing cost pressures and high prices in the construction sector, housing demand is expected to remain weak.
A recent report from the IFO Institute highlights that in April, 55.2 percent of companies in Germany’s residential construction sector reported a lack of orders, while 17.6 percent of building construction companies faced cancellations, down slightly from 19.6 percent in March.